An introduction to crack spreads today in energy u. Shell puts gulf coast, puget sound refineries up for sale. Another supporting factor was the higher exports opportunities to latin american countries. Robust margins spurred strongerthanexpected oecd refinery runs, lifting 2q15 global. Gulf coast refineries reach record runs houston chronicle. The nymex gasoline crack spread, a rough measure for how much refiners make from producing the motor. According to new data from the eia, refining margins for motor gasoline. Surging oil sands production is projected to more than double canadas crude output between now and 2030. Behind the margins will lower gasoline prices threaten the. If investors track the us gulf coast wti west texas. The spread approximates the profit margin that an oil refinery can expect to make by cracking the longchain hydrocarbons of crude oil into useful shorterchain petroleum products in the futures markets, the crack spread is a. Jan 26, 2016 a global oversupply of diesel, meanwhile, will leave margins for refiners on the us gulf coast especially vulnerable, because the region depends heavily on exporting diesel to europe. This series will provide insight into the profitability trends of. Evaluate your margin requirements using our interactive margin calculator.
Nov 14, 2016 tracking refining margins and crack spreads. Gulf coast ulsd platts crack spread futures quotes globex. For example, you can calculate the crack spread for rbob gasoline sold in the u. The crack spread represents the theoretical refining margin. New formula yields coking refinery margins more reliably. The primary culprit has been sharply falling gasoline prices.
On the us west coast, refining margins rose despite a fall in container traffic at the port of long beach in california. For example, building a comparable project on the united states gulf coast costs less. Refining margins in the companys biggest segment, u. In addition, refiners on the west coast are faced with californias global. The record runs are squeezing the oncemighty profit margins for refiners. Gulf coast ulsd platts crack spread futures quotes cme. The us gulf coast coking refinery data reinforce the fact that the traditional 321 crack spread is a poor indicator of refining margins achieved by us gulf coast coking refineries. The variation makes a huge difference in refiners profits. The above chart is the us gulf coast wti 321 crack spread or usgc wti.
Am0555 a new proxy for coking margins forget the crack spread. Despite falling futures cracks and plummeting demand, us gulf coast refinery cracking margins were still healthy for domestic crudes. Delta air lines refinery bet is about to pay off again the. Hurricane harvey made landfall in texas on august 25 and spent the next week ravaging the u. This was on the back of increasing domestic gasoline demand, which recovered following a slump during 1q17. Low crude oil prices, increased gasoline demand lead to high refiner margins. According to fernandez and raymonds report, crack spreads per barrel for east coast, gulf coast, and west coast refiners are all above. Oil prices have plunged to oneyear lows, but refiners in certain parts of the u. Despite lower crude prices, usgc cracking margins for west texas intermediate priced at. Shell has said on many previous occasions that it has seen weaker economic activity impacting margins in its refining and chemicals segments. European products prices and margins for refiners, with brent cracking margins over.
Crack spread options provide refiners with a great tool to hedge or capture refining margins as they allow the. In the gulf coast, dwindling heavy oil supplies have suppressed refining margins, while midwest refiners may not reach the high run rates seen last summer. Delta air lines refinery bet is about to pay off again. How oil price spreads have changed refiner crude sourcing. We compare these two as they are one of the best measures of the global oil markets as crude oil produced outside of the us and delivered to the gulf coast is. The service includes detailed refining margin data, which we publish every weekday.
What crashing refining margins mean for oil markets. Within a region, there can also be seasonal differences in demand for heating fuel versus. Crude oil crack spreads to put the big squeeze on refiner q4 results. As a result, although gasoline margins have been low recently, refiners cannot completely stop making gasoline in favor of other petroleum products, such as distillate. This spread, or refining margin, is hitting multiyear highs. Since prices for petroleum products are typically quoted in dollars per gallon. Global refining margins help lift crude oil prices reuters. Jan 10, 2018 crack spread refers to the overall pricing difference between a barrel of crude oil and the petroleum products refined from it. Why gas prices arent falling with oil prices business. A new proxy for coking margins forget the crack spread the socalled 321 crack spread has been used for many years by refining industry analysts as a broadbased indicator of the economic incentive to convert crude oil into finished products. The rise in the price of rins is eating into refining margins. How refining margins are key indicators of refining. Thats because, even though lls crude yields have risen, so has the spot price of lls crude. Overall refining crack spreads a measure of refinery profitability were sharply lower but kept positive on the strength of diesel margins.
Wright killen refining margins are gross cash margins before depreciation, taxes, and financial charges. As a result, the refinery lost money in both 2012 and 20. Oil 101 refining business drivers downstream oil and gas this oil 101 refining module discusses refinery margins, the crack spread, refinery profitability. On average, the benchmark gulf coast 532 crack spread increased more than percent in 2010 versus the prioryear period, the first such yearoveryear increase since the 20062007 timeframe. May 15, 2017 this was on the back of increasing domestic gasoline demand, which recovered following a slump during 1q17. Finally, us refiners processed record amounts of crude us refinery input of 16. The spread approximates the profit margin that an oil refinery can expect to.
Rbn energy analysis of refining margins uses a simplified approach known as crack spreads to identify overall trends in refinery performance rather than getting into more complex refinery economics. Relative impact of factors on a refiners net margins source. The future of the gulf coast refining industrypaper. The source for financial, economic, and alternative datasets, serving investment professionals. Delek us holdings reports first quarter 2019 results. Our refineries operated well at 96% utilization, allowing us to take advantage of wider. If investors track the us gulf coast wti west texas intermediate 321 crack, they can understand the direction of refining margins for refiners like psx and mpc in the nearterm. Midwest refiners look like earnings winners in third. In the refining industry and in financial markets, this is called the crack spread.
Update 2valero energy tops profit estimates on higher. Crude oil crack spreads to put the big squeeze on refiner. It is possible to use various combinations of crude oil and refined products to calculate crack spreads. These facts provide context for the first issue confronting the gulf coast refining industry. Leading us refiners publish refining margin indicators periodically to show how these margins could currently be trending. The crack spreads in the amsterdamrotterdamantwerp ara region of europe and in singapore, two global refining and distribution hubs, suggest markets in these regions are experiencing similar trends. Daily margins and crack spreads are provided, including historic readings, forward values and fiveyear averages. This has put a downward pressure on the profitability of refining business at a time when high crude oil prices and environmental costs are already weighing on margins. Mar 03, 2014 key trends impacting global refining margins. All market data contained within the cme group website should be considered as a reference only and should not be used as validation against, nor as a complement to, realtime market data feeds.
Flattening yearoveryear growth in gasoline demand in the united states, combined with high levels of refinery output, have contributed to low or negative motor gasoline refining margins for refiners along the east and gulf coasts. Behind the margins will lower gasoline prices threaten. A rebound in gasoline exports from the us gulf coast supported margins there, as more gasoline and diesel was heading to latin america. Oil prices rose more than 1 percent on wednesday as strong global refining margins and the reopening of u. The table below shows the computation of a recent u. Refinery shutdowns across the texas gulf coast significantly impaired crude demand for the entire country. Leading us refiners publish refining margin indicators periodically to show how these. Gulf coast refiners see gasoline margins fall to negative. Gulf coast utilization of refinery capacity is at 91. Crack spread is a term used on the oil industry and futures trading for the differential between the price of crude oil and petroleum products extracted from it. Am0555 a new proxy for coking margins forget the crack. The refining margins service surveys spot and forward markets for global refining systems. Computing refining margin requires detailed proprietary information or estimates of a refinery s crude slate, product slate, and all the corresponding refinery gate prices.
The refining marker margin rmm uses regional crack spreads to calculate the margin indicator and does not include estimates of fuel costs and other variable costs. Us gasoline cracks slide into negative territory argus media. If a crack spread is a positive number then the price of the refined products is higher than that of crude oil, the raw material, and the spread is profitable. Gulf coast refineries saw motor gasoline margins fall from 27 cents per gallon in the first half of 2018 to 1 cent a gallon in october and dipping even.
Us gulf coast refiners have been able to maintain better margins, as their complex refineries are able to process a wider variety of crude and have higher distillate yields than usac plants. Us oil refiners face hurdles from global heavy crude. Global refining margins have improved significantly in recent weeks which should support strong demand for crude and lend some strength to both spot prices and spreads in the short term. The following chart shows the wti gulf coast ultra low sulfur diesel ulsd crack spread refining profit margins vs. Crack spread is a quickanddirty approximation of refining margin. Gulf coast ulsd platts crack spread futures quotes cme group. Gulf coast diesel crack habit can refiners live without. Refinery utilization at the gulf coast has averaged close to 90% for the past 4. Dec 21, 2015 crude oil crack spreads to put the big squeeze on refiner q4 results.
Named after major refining centers in the usa chicago in the midwest or padd ii and the gulf coast or padd iii, the first number represents the total barrels of crude used and the number of gasoline and fuel oil yielded. Gulf coast refiners selling their product up the colonial pipeline will make less money than the gulf coast crack suggests. Key trends impacting global refining margins nasdaq. A common singleproduct crack spread is the gasoline crack spread, as shown in the figure. Gulf coast diesel crack habit can refiners live without it. Margins typically peak in q2 but high petroleum product stocks and a lower latin america import requirement due to higher refinery throughput, will temper that peak.
Gulf coast profits from coking a process where heavy crude is broken down into fuels such as gasoline and diesel are already at their lowest levels in nearly a decade. The term crack comes from how a refinery makes money. As compared to fourthquarter 2016, firstquarter crack spreads are higher on the west coast, lower on the east coast and broadly flat across the midcontinent and the gulf coast. Unless you simply burn it, crude oil in its natural state is of no use to consumersit. The spread approximates the profit margin that an oil refinery can expect to make by cracking the longchain hydrocarbons of crude oil into useful shorterchain petroleum products. This may help explain some of the recent commentary from refiner management teams e. Falling crude prices at first increased refining margins especially as. An investors guide to refinery stocks the motley fool.
Hedging refining profit margins with crack spread options. For example, if a refinery is in the us gulf coast and the products are sold along the colonial pipeline in atlanta, the atlanta product prices need to have the colonial pipeline. After a strong start to 2017, notional us gulf coast cracking refinery margins will strengthen, but just barely. Refining margins primarily affect refining earnings. Cheaper oil can contribute to bigger margins for refiners, who are supplying. The result has been a gulf coast diesel refining boom. Crude oil crack spreads to put the big squeeze on refiner q4. Refining margins 17 jan 2018 nwe light sweet cracking refining margin historical data, charts. Figure 5 shows that downstream operators able to source etiher crude oil closest to inland supply gluts or process low quality crude proxied by the wtimidwest crack spread and the venezuelanus gulf coast usgc crack spread, respectively could garner substantially higher refining margins than operators forced to use high quality crudes on. Gulf coast market compared to the price of crude oil. Us gulf coast refiners have been able to maintain better margins.
The rmm is similar to the approach used by many of our competitors. Understand how cme group can help you navigate new initial margin regulatory and reporting requirements. Crack spread options provide refiners with a great tool to hedge or capture refining margins as they allow the refiner to hedge two independent risks with one trade. Refining margin is the difference between total revenue from refined product sales and total costs of all crude oil and other refinery inputs. Gasoline refining margins the difference between the spot price of gasoline and the brent crude oil spot price.
Oil 101 refining business drivers downstream oil and gas. Find information for gulf coast ulsd platts crack spread futures quotes provided by cme group. Mar 05, 2014 this has put a downward pressure on the profitability of refining business at a time when high crude oil prices and environmental costs are already weighing on margins. If the spread is a negative number, the products are priced at less than the cost of crude and are not profitable. In late january, gulf coast gasoline crack spreads reached their lowest levels. The above chart is the us gulf coast wti 321 crack spread or usgc wti 321. The economics of petroleum refining canadian fuels association. Gulf coast refineries provided a more bullish outlook after sharp drops due to. It is an industryspecific type of gross processing margin. For our big spring refinery, we compare our per barrel refined product margin to the gulf coast 321 crack spread consisting of wti cushing crude, gulf coast 87 conventional gasoline and gulf. Gulf coast refineries saw motor gasoline margins fall from 27 cents per gallon in the first half of the year to 1 cent a gallon in october and dipping even further down to negative values during. Diesel production to feed this boom comes from refining conventional domestic and imported crude supplies that currently feed gulf coast refineries.